Monday, October 15, 2012

Green Car technology: Challenges For An Evolving Automotive Industry



Last week as I was at the petrol station the pump attendant asked me, do you want petrol or diesel? I replied quite normally, “Petrol please”. Then quite unexpectedly he asked me, “V-power” or “regular”. I was confused so I asked him what V-Power was and what was the difference but more importantly what was the price difference?  The difference was not that much but he answered that the V-power made engines faster or allowed them to move more stances on less fuel. I had heard about these theories but had never really investigated the basis, foundations or even the ramifications of “going green” as was the buzz word around anything that saved energy and was inevitably contributing to reducing global warming; hence begun my education on green technology and driving.

The website green-technology describes technology as the application of knowledge for practical purposes and in that context goes ahead to describe the field of green technology as encompassing “… a continuously evolving group of methods and materials, from techniques for generating energy to non-toxic cleaning products.”[1] Whereas this is a broad definition, for purposes of this article the focus will be on the automotive industry. 

At the turn of the 20th century a man named Ferdinand Porsche[2] took a job as a coach builder. He is the inventor of the Porsche, one of the fastest most agile and perhaps graceful cars to ever run the earth. What is little known is an invention that he showed the world in 1900; the Lohner Porsche Mixte Hybrid developed in 1900, which was the first gasoline-electric hybrid car in the world.[3] He said it was the future. The world was excited but nothing was done about it for almost a century.
There are a couple of reasons why the word would have sat on the idea of a hybrid car in the 20th century but the two biggest ones are the advent of refined oil-driven engines that seemed to perform better than the prospects of the hybrid appeared. The second has been put down by many people in the filed as the discovery of seemingly inexhaustible fuel deposits from which the refined oil could be derived. The third reason was the mechanization of the manufacturing process by Henry Ford with the assembly line in the 1920s which made car manufacture easy and almost mechanical. With the fuel to power these cars and functional combustion engines assembly plants there literally was no need to reinvent the wheel in car manufacture and so engineers and architects around the world never felt the need to design cars that did not use anything other than refined oil.

And it was not until in 1995 when Toyota displayed their first concept hybrid car; Toyota Prius, at the Japan auto show that the race was back on again to develop a car that would face the challenges of the future. The Prius; a hybrid that ran on both fuel and electric batteries, was actually not produced commercially until 1997. The car was critically acclaimed as a step in the right direction and seen as Toyota steering the automotive category in a direction that had been much needed. 

The hybrid vehicle model made famous by Toyota works on a simple principle; it has a two part engine; one conventional combustion engine and a powerful electric motor. The electric motor runs while the cars runs at lower speeds within cities and the car automatically switches to the combustion engine at higher speeds. A special feature in-built design feature is the idea of regenerative brakes which means the car uses the kinetic energy to charge the batteries. The car also is able to charge the batteries while the combustion engine is running. However, ideally the car should be able to plug into any wall socket to charge the batteries. Today, this is the leading form of carbon emission reduction technology while retaining feeling of speed and comfort.[4]

The electric vehicle, which has only gained recognition in the last decade as the push to innovate for emission free transportation systems has become greater with governments giving ever bigger incentives and tax subsidies, is powered by an electric motor instead of the conventional combustion engine. The largest majority of these vehicles is powered by high energy battery packs and will usually use Lithium ion batteries. A fully charged battery pack, taking anywhere from 10 to 14 hours to charge will deliver on average about 160 km. What does make them convenient for busy cities or heavy traffic areas is their lighter weight and smaller size compared to normal cars. 

A third and viable option has emerged in biofuels and ethanol bi-products as manufacturers tried to innovate around the internal combustion engine. They figured if they couldn’t change the power train of the vehicle they could change the fuel of engine. This technology uses ethanol derived from sugarcane as fuel. Originally popular in Brazil, the idea has spread and is now popular in the United States and Western Europe. Ethanol is considered to be entirely environmentally friendly since the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere is offset by the crop carbon intake as it grows. Other variants include biodiesel made from cassava[5] or soybeans[6][7]. In each of these cases however the question has been asked whether the massive amounts of crop that go into the production of these fuels are wasted since the return ration ratio has been shown to be low.

A rather late comer to the party however has been almost a development from peoples’ imagination; Fuel Cell Economy Vehicles. The Fuel Cell Vehicle is much like an electric vehicle in the sense that it is powered by a fuel cell[8] stack which converts the energy from the electrochemical reaction of Hydrogen stored on board and Oxygen from the air producing electricity which powers the motor to drive the car. Even though the likes of BMW[9] and Hyundai/Kia Motors[10] are looking at these models as their keys to the future of automobile engineering, only a handful of these vehicles have been introduced on the market and the challenge of making the Hydrogen production process cost effective still presents an obstacle. 

But what are we talking about exactly when we talk about green technology for cars? A quick look at the market and their development shows that some more than others have taken their innovations to the next level. 

Seen as a sort of the father to the eco-friendly automotive industry the Prius brand has gone on to have variants and upgrades with better performance; leading to the launch in 2012 of three brands ranked by the American Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as among the top 10 most fuel efficient cars; Prius C, ranked as the most fuel-efficient compact car, the Prius Liftback, as the most fuel-efficient midsize car, and the Prius V, as the most fuel-efficient midsize station wagon[11]. Some independent analysts have even ranked the Prius Plug-in Hybrid C (a variant that charges its batteries but still retains the ability to have an internal combustion engine capability) as the most economical car to ever be produced[12]

The 1.5 litre, 72 horsepower engine only emits 2,170 kg/year of carbon and will consume 4.4litres for every 100Km you travel in the city although the figures moves up to 5.1 if you travel on the highway. The hatchback car comes fitted with the standard Toyota bells and whistles but interestingly weighs in at a petite 1,136 kg.

The Nissan Leaf (also formatted "LEAF" as a acronym for Leading, Environmentally friendly, Affordable, Family car) is a five-door hatchback electric car manufactured by Nissan and introduced in Japan and the United States in December 2010[13]. The fully electric car running on Lithium ion batteries and produces no tailpipe pollution or greenhouse emissions which help its reduce on pollution.  Severally awarded, the Leaf was the first electric car to win the prestigious World Car of The Year at the 2011 New York International Auto show.[14]

The Chevrolet Volt[15] is the most fuel-efficient compact car with a gasoline engine sold in the United States, as rated by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)[16] The Volt operates as a pure battery electric vehicle until its plug-in battery capacity drops to a predetermined threshold from full charge. From there its internal combustion engine powers an electric generator to extend the vehicle's range if needed. Once the engine is running in this extended range mode, it may at times be linked mechanically (via a clutch) to assist the traction motor in propelling the car in order to improve energy efficiency. As of August 2012, the Volt and the Ampera[17], its European counterpart, have sold together more than 26,000 units worldwide.
However despite these great advances and strides made in the category there are still many questions as to whether the automotive industry within itself has what it will take to bring this dream of a cheap affordable, green sustainable car to life for drivers across the world. There are many challenges both for the category of green technology but also for the various types of automotive options available.

Firstly, to feed the “Green Frenzy” (a term described by the Harvard Business Review as the “shifting from a race to launch ecofriendly products to a battle over what constitutes a green product in the first place.”[18]) the question that has been asked is whether the sustainability race is indeed sustainable for the automotive industry. What will happen to all the cars on the roads now? What will companies do about orders and commitments that they have made for the next few years? Apart from Toyota which has been doing this much longer than other automotive manufacturers, most car companies have introduced short term, medium term and an long term transition plans to bring them to this goal. Mostly these plans involve increasing fuel efficiency in the short term, moving power trains and adapting them for hybrids in the medium term and fully electric motors in the long term.
Secondly, in a 2011 paper presented at the Michigan Greenup Conference, Carol J. Henry.[19]  states that the challenges for sustainable mobility are much more than just fuel efficiency and that the sustainability question is bigger than that. But is it? Without a sustainable fuel alternative the whole idea falls flat and goes back to the drawing board. The reality is that biofuels use up far more crop than the save carbon emissions, hydrogen fuel cells are presenting challenges in cost effective manufacturing, packaging and distribution, the hybrid cars are still struggling with battery technologies that will charge and last long enough. And so as an industry, the fuel challenge is still massive.

There has been the question of recycling and or waste management of all the used batteries especially since Lithium ion batteries. The rare elements that go into the making of these batteries make the disposal process critical. This also raises the question, is it just the batteries? Ideally, the shift of green technology is seeing the advent of lighter small cars because as the power trains shrink, the car needs less size and also requires less energy to power. This has presented the opportunity to actually create cars which are 100% recyclable. So, fewer emissions complete recyclability. That’s very close to what the purists would want.

The hybrid and electric cars have also been challenged on the issues of long recharge times, limited driving range and the prohibitively high cost to purchase are problems which unless they are addressed by manufacturers will continue to present like nagging problems that in consumers’ minds present as unfixed kinks and therefore continue to affect the decision to buy.[20] This coupled with governments’ slow action in planning for recharge infrastructures and facilities has continued to fuel the slow adoption of the hybrid and electric vehicles.[21]

Perhaps the much bigger prohibitory factor for entry in to the business has been the fact that even with manufacturing going up, and resultantly demand as well, most of the rare elements needed to manufacture a lot of the Lithium ion batteries are found abundantly in China which according to a Forbes interview is the supplier of 95% of the world rare earth minerals[22] . With increasingly stringent environmental measures being taken by the government on senseless mining, and irresponsible disposal less players in the supply market will inadvertently mean less competition and ultimately a higher price to the consumer.[23] Higher prices will create a barrier to entry for even more people.

Is this technology scalable? Could Toyota roll out a million units a year if they have only sold 2.8million hybrid units since 1997? Will the industry modify its core processes, systems and resource outlays in order to quench the thirst the world has for “green cars”? So far, this has proved to be almost impossible. As manufacturers have found that decades-old designs and transmissions systems have to be re-thought if they even want to have the idea of a green car. Lighter materials mean cars that are more dangerous when they collide in accidents, more battery power which has meant smaller cars which have been a cause for concern in terms of space and comfort.[24] That’s what manufacturers have to contend with. And with some brands so deeply entrenched in people’s minds, there is a fear of some brands losing the core essence of what they once stood for.

It is important to note however that these challenges have only served to spur the industry on to innovate, create and find new ways to work around these problems thereby in themselves being part of the solutions.


[1] http://www.green-technology.org/what.htm
[2] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ferdinand_Porsche
[3] http://carpoolse.com/2011/05/the-evolution-of-the-hybrid-car/
[4] http://www.eco20-20.com/Green-Technology-and-Its-Impact-in-the-Auto-Industry.html
[5] http://cropsforbiofuel.blogspot.com/2011/04/cassava-for-biofuel-in-vietnam.html
[6] http://www.greencar.com/tech-biodiesel.php
[7] http://extension.agron.iastate.edu/soybean/uses_biodiesel.html
[8] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fuel_cell
[9] http://www.malaysia-europeforum.com/download/speech09/geoffrey%20briscoe.pdf
[10] http://www.oecd.org/sti/industryandglobalisation/45008864.pdf
[11] The Environmental protection agency report on the most efficient model cars for the year 2012 http://www.epa.gov/fueleconomy/class-high.htm
[12] http://www.which.co.uk/news/2011/11/toyota-prius-plug-in-hybrid-is-most-economical-car-ever-271784/
[13] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_Leaf
[14] http://mashable.com/2011/04/21/nissan-leaf-award/
[15] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt
[16] http://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/topten.jsp
[17] http://www.opel.com/experience_opel/sustainability/mobility.html
[18] http://hbr.org/2010/11/winning-in-the-green-frenzy/ar/1
[19] http://www.michigan.gov/documents/deq/deq-oea-chemistry-c3-henry_368244_7.pdf
[20] http://wealthpilgrim.com/disadvantages-buying-a-hybrid/
[21] http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/working_papers/2012/RAND_WR775.pdf
[22] http://www.forbes.com/sites/jackperkowski/2012/06/21/behind-chinas-rare-earth-controversy/
[23] http://autos.mikegouchie.com/2012/08/barriers-to-greater-hybrid-uptake/
[24] http://wealthpilgrim.com/disadvantages-buying-a-hybrid/

Tuesday, January 17, 2012

Samsung Launches the Galaxy Note in Style


It could have been set anywhere in the world, the Kampala Serena poolside and of course the Silk Events lighting always make any function one to relish.
We were there to launch the new Samsung Galaxy Note, Samsung’s answer to the iPhone, to Nokia’s N8, to Blackberry’s Storm. It is large, and I mean large with a really wide screen. It is super fast and of course with a clarity to match them all. That’s because of its HD super AMOLED HD display.
As we watched the minister for ICT Hon. Nyombi Thembo unveiled a work such as my years in tech-dom have not allowed me to encounter.
 

 This device came across as what you would get if your tablet fornicated with your cell phone and they had a baby. With the speed of the second latest android technology (yes, they used Gingerbread not IceCream Sandwich), and the sweet deliciousness that you find in next generation devices, one has to say that this device is quite the gadget on the block. Complete with a stylus, you can doodle, write, take notes, during phone calls which says something about the phone’s ability to multi task and not hang which is more than I can about some of our more prominent devices in our market these days.

Some have argued that this device is suspiciously similar to the Galaxy S II – and have been replied to that in fact both phones are made by Samsung and so indeed would carry the best features of the Galaxy S II. Able to support high speed internet, up to 16GB of inbuilt memory and of course the sleek 8 megapixel camera that makes all your photo and video experience a whole different shade of interesting.

 Anyway, they served us nice treats (as if the Serena can do any less), and then unleashed on us the finest surprise of the evening: Barbed Wire Thong. The boys in that band are on something extra rich. Rudeboy Devoh who used to sing for Afrigo and Samuel Nabwiiso as lead vocalists just took the night away and hit for 6!!
Hanging out with cool advertising girls

Samsung might not have done well to retail the Galaxy Note at UGX2.4 Million (about $USD1,000) especially since Orange was launching the iPhone 4S the same night at the same price but the band more than made up for that. But with expandable memory and its sleek bezel finishing, I think that the tide in the market might have changed. Finally Samsung has arrived to the party.




Wednesday, November 30, 2011

10 things/ apps/ ideas I think will redefine the future in Uganda as we know it


It’s that time of the year again when you have to take stock, to be thankful and most of all to be hopeful.  Has it been an amazing year? Yes!! Does it leave any doubt in my mind that the future is bright where we are going? NO. Not so much with all the things happening around us. I have however had the privilege to write about the people, ideas and projects I personally came into contact with this year that I think have what it takes to make this country and even the world a better place. Sometime we think that we know  what will make it through the next decade, and they don’t. But other times we actually don’t see them coming. I think these ideas point a new light to where the future of technology, the start-up industry and development will be headed; convergence, or at least, ideas that will make that destination a more desirable one.
  
        CU@SKOOL: Last year I wrote here about an OpenXdata solution that was being tested for trial in rural primary schools as part of a pilot to see if school absenteeism would reduce if school attendance was digitized. The pilot was in 100 schools in Kiboga and Mbale. The trials were completed the application was being prepared for national roll out to 16,000 schools. I think this app could reduce the numbers of absent teachers and students. First there are a few problems to solve: 

a) The $18 Million in aid which was pulled last week because of the level of corruption in government and the lip service that was being given to the Netherlands government. Another case involved the chairman of the board of the National Information Technology Authority NITA, Ken Lubega, acquiring an UGX 11 Billion contract to supply e-learning software for both private and government aided schools through his company, CyberSchool Technology solutions here. Some heads need to roll.

b) Rolling out the application in more than 50% of all schools at primary level. At that scale one can measure efficiency or the lack of it. 

c) At that scale the application can be channeled to query for more specific delivery, attendance and progress metrics. 

The application is built to run on low end devices and will allow the headmaster to send the District Education Officer a weekly report on attendance. It also automatically shares the results with members of the community and/or the PTA. If we can get the foundations of the education system right, then we can give the younger children a fighting chance against the monster that is USE.


Garage 48: Out of a town called Tanill in Estonia hails a group of 6 people who started something called Garage 48 where developers, coders, IT enthusiasts, and designers sit for 48 hours, are divided into teams and work to turn ideas into working prototypes. They have events that help foster startup communities across the world. Uganda had her first Garage48 event this September. One of the 11 complete apps that came out of there was Mafutago – an application that uses the GPS location of your phone to tell you the cheapest and nearest fuelling station near you. Would I like that? Yes!! Would a boda boda rider like that? Definitely! The truth still remains that with low access, and a price ceiling for internet accessible devices, the application will remain a preserve of the middle class. And yet, the stats show rising mobile internet usage and access every day. So there is reason to hope not just because of one app but because of what the spirit of start-ups represents; the "Silicon Valleyism" if you want. Code-a-thons, Techfests, Hackathons, its all just people who want to contribute and need to be given a chance. We’ll just have to start here.


3.   Crimex: Crimex: Speaking of geo-spatial mapping brings to mind a discussion I had with a friend of mine. @jkaizzi who escorted the Makerere University team to the regional Microsoft Imagine Challenge Cup (Microsoft’s own search for talent) where he himself has been going since 2008, when I first met him. Anyway, as a mentor he was taking his team to present an interesting application they called “Crimex”. Their argument was peace, stability, and rule of law were essential to the achievement of the MDGs. On a capricious, vastly volatile continent, they seemed to have found the link between keeping the peace, and making the piece. The application is built on a vast amount of data collected and inputted on maps which allows law enforcement to chart out trouble spots, plan resource distribution, map out recurrence, and anticipate future offenses. The challenges here lie in:
a) the massive amount of data collection
b) Resource training and analysis
c) Political will to see this through
d) With predictive intelligence as @JonGos said here, the positive disruptive potential is so huge that we would see a shift in the way crime fighting and approaches are done.




Will the face of crime fighting change? We don’t know, but what I know is that being able to map out where the prevalence of child molesters or domestic violence hot spots will give our mothers and sisters a better chance at justice.

Fundi Bots' Nigel-5
4.     Fundi Bots: When I first met him, he was the calm and collected half of the now famous blogger duo: Two weak dudes: a witty, slightly satirized look at society. When I got to know him, I found him to be a technology enthusiast, a lover of robots, an ethical businessman with the work ethic of a beaver. Solomon King Benge, is the Resident Fundi at Fundi Bots, a collective that is going around secondary schools in Uganda both rural and urban teaching young people about robots and robotics, starting robotics clubs, and generating interest in the topic. The fascinating thing about this story is that everything he knows, he self taught from tutorials on the internet. But what blows your mind and I guess every kid’s mind, is his story. He was told it was a dream he was never to pursue, never to chase, never to dream. He refused to stop. He pressed on. And when the time came, he dreamed again. Today, he is testament that those amongst us who continue to dream will be the ones we will choose to lead us.   I think that Fundi Bots deserves its spot here because of the spirited and inspirational stories behind the team who all volunteer their time to design, make, and speak on robots across the country. Gathering stories, teaching young minds, planting seeds of desire. For to get great technology, there must great inspiration.
Solomon King on a Fundi Bots tour at Kiira SS
5.     SatNav East Africa: Last week on BBC Click, they were talking about the trends that are emerging to take over the future and Tom said “ There are the devices that are going to shape the future are going to be Mobile. Location. Social.” SatNav, a company that is into location based devices is perhaps for me one of the closest places we have come to answering the question of where are you? The company that installs TomToms or location devices has just completed a mapping system where they have mapped out the whole of Kampala on a grid map and will be expanding out to the rest of the country over the next year, giving precise GPS addresses to places, locations and sites. For small fee, members of the public can get their own address which becomes their address where mail, deliveries, messages can be physically delivered. Now most people might ask what is strange about people delivering things to your address until you understand that you no longer have to have the conversation about “turn right at the mango tree, take a left, and keep going until you reach the trading centre and then stop at the Grey gate” Four years ago I wrote here that Uganda had leap frogged from the postal service to the mobile phone. Without the physical infrastructure of the landline of which the west had over 100 years, the idea of location and DSL internet connection at home as and still remains a largely unknown element. Skipping from the mailbox to the mobile phone was a coup for development and indeed the technocrats congratulate Africa and have called the Mobile the Panacea of all our evils. But the  universe must have balance. What would this mean you ask?
a) your mail would come to your place directly
b) in case of emergencies, police ambulances and rescue services would know exactly where to help you out from with improved rescue times
c)if you needed  health care, you’d know the nearest clinic/hospital/health centre
d) real estate brokerage would all go online as available house would simply just showed with pictures and viewing times 
SATNAV helping you find your way home
 e) sending loved one gifts parcels and love would be personal.
f) ordering pizza to your doorstep
g) the flourishing of a whole new service sector and attendant jobs as delivery companies start to set up shop
h) philandering will now have an address.
i) cabs will know exactly where to pick you up from
j) visiting your in-laws will be much easier.
k)”There was jam” and “I got lost” will no longer be a valid excuse for late coming. All in all, I think that by pioneering this service SatNav has a real shot at steering a future with real options for Uganda.


These solutions are not going to answer Uganda’s electricity or pothole problems (the answer to that is by adopting a pothole as the Urban legend guys suggest here) but represent the glimmer of hope of efforts and of people who are around us making a difference every day. These advancements possess the immense ability to prepare us to catapult to the next stage but also carry the grave warning that all technology does; one that can be abused to hurt a great many people. Either way, we have to make a choice and act now because the time to sit on the fence no longer exists.